A new vision for the future of macro management in the digital age

 　　August 2022 The

　　digital economy has profoundly changed the face of our lives.

　　The rapid development and popularization of digital technology has brought about major changes in people's consumption behavior, social interaction, payment, production, and even cognitive modes. These changes will inevitably lead to the emergence of "abnormal" phenomena that are different from the past in economic operations, both in the micro and macro fields, and have an impact on the mainstream national economic analysis paradigm based on the industrial economic system.

　　As Thomas Kuhn pointed out in "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions", when there are anomalies in reality that cannot be explained by the existing mainstream scientific paradigms, even at first everyone resists the anomaly and regards it as a Exceptions are handled, but when there are more and more such anomalies, it means that a scientific revolution is about to take place, and a new paradigm will gradually emerge, which will eventually replace the original paradigm and achieve a "paradigm shift". With the digital transformation in full swing in the micro and industrial fields, a change in macroeconomic management is coming.

　　How macroeconomic management adapts to changes in the digital age is the core issue discussed in the book Digital Macro: Macroeconomic Management Transformation in the Digital Age. The basic logic of our research is as follows. First, we will sort out the forces behind the macroeconomic changes in each historical development stage, and look for the driving mechanism (historical evolution) of previous paradigm shifts. Then discuss what abnormal changes and new mechanisms have occurred in the micro-economic operation in the context of digitalization, identify the transformative forces and trends (micro-mechanisms) of these new mechanisms, and map these micro-mechanisms to macro-scenarios. What kind of new dilemmas and anomalies will “emerge” at the macro level (macro-emergence), and then open-ended discussions on the development direction and prospects of macro-management in the digital age.

　　From the perspective of historical evolution, changes in the most active factors of production are the basic forces leading the reform of macroeconomic management.

　　So, what are the most active elements? This book proposes that under a certain stage of economic development, if a certain type of factor has the following three important characteristics, it is called the "most active factor": First, the allocation of resources in the national economy is often based on this factor, or The activities it carries out have the best growth; second, this element has extensive connectivity. Once it enters the economic cycle, it often leads to changes in organizational models and transaction patterns, thereby accelerating technological progress and technology diffusion; third, it becomes the expansion of economic growth. Possible frontiers and major sources of economic volatility, such as land in the agricultural age, capital in the industrial age, and data in the digital age.

　　The most active factor in the agricultural era is land. Economic development is mainly reflected in the expansion of land and the increase in agricultural output. Agricultural economic activities are closely related to the land factor. The growth at this stage is more manifested as quantitative expansion, and qualitative improvement is not obvious, often falling into the "Malthusian trap". Entering the industrial society, the potential for innovation is like magma spurting out of the cracks, integrating the power of capital and opening the door to modern growth. The production of technical knowledge began to specialize, and capital accumulation rose sharply, increasing the volatility of the business cycle and setting the stage for an economic crisis. The most active element in the industrial age is capital. In the West, it is also called the capitalist period. Economic development is mainly reflected in capital accumulation and large-scale standardized production. Industrial economic activities are closely related to capital elements. The core of macroeconomic management is the allocation and structural adjustment of capital across departments and time and space, as well as the balance of supply and demand under socialized mass production.

　　In general, from the agricultural economy to the industrial economy to the digital economy, due to the fundamental differences in the most active factors of production driving economic growth, the connectivity between economic factors and market players, and the mechanisms that drive economic accumulation and scale expansion It will change, which will lead to great differences in the interaction and feedback mechanism of micro-subjects, the generation and amplification of economic fluctuations, and the continuous evolution and development of macroeconomic management objects, concepts and methods at different stages.

　　We can also see that another integrated force may gradually grow, so that the barrier between the macro and the micro that has been in the past century is expected to be broken. A major criticism of modern macroeconomics, which was born after the Great Depression, is the lack of a micro-foundation, resulting in a long-term separation between the macro and the micro. When analyzing real economic problems, the current mainstream macroeconomic theories generally deal with long-term problems and short-term problems, supply and demand separately, and believe that demand is a short-term problem, supply is a long-term problem, and the focus of short-term macro management is economic fluctuations, and the focus of long-term discussions is growth. For a long time, generations of economists have tried to get through the internal mechanism of macro and micro. Unfortunately, this problem has not been well solved so far. The advent of the digital age has brought unprecedented opportunities for the connection between the macro-economy and the micro-economy.