How far is the unmanned "flying"?

 　　Open the mobile phone software, enter the address, you can take the unmanned "aircraft" to the destination, which may no longer be a dream in the future.

　　A few days ago, the Civil Aviation Administration of China released the "Civil Unmanned Aviation Development Roadmap V1.0" (hereinafter referred to as the "Roadmap"), proposing that short, medium, medium and long distances will be achieved in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively. Timeline for manned unmanned aerial vehicle exploration applications.

　　The concept of urban air traffic has become common in recent years. Many countries have released urban air traffic plans, and flying cars have become a new outlet. So far, 200 companies around the world have joined the "flying car melee". China is the first to achieve a breakthrough in the zero airworthiness standard for unmanned aerial vehicles. How far are we from taking a driverless "flying" commute?

Unmanned airworthiness certification is blank, safety is a challenge

　　The "Roadmap" released by the Civil Aviation Administration on August 22 pointed out that by 2025, short-distance manned flights represented by urban commuter transportation will carry out application demonstrations. By 2030 and 2035, medium-distance manned transportation between suburbs and cities, and manned transportation between cities will be explored and applied respectively. On September 2, Ma Zhigang, deputy director of the Airport Department of the Civil Aviation Administration, revealed at the International Development Forum of Urban Air Transport that the Airport Department is considering setting up a special research group to carry out targeted research on the technical standards of vertical take-off and landing sites for flying vehicles.

　　In recent years, flying cars have become very popular. Flying cars, or electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs), look a bit like helicopters, and established aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus, as well as technology companies such as Tencent and Uber, have entered the field. Due to the high threshold for the safety and airworthiness certification of aircraft by global aviation industry regulators, the generally long test flight cycle, and the differences between eVTOL products and traditional passenger aircraft in terms of electrification, rotor structure, etc., the airworthiness certification of manned flying vehicles is global. It is still under exploration, and the airworthiness certification of unmanned aircraft is even more blank.

　　In February this year, the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued the "Special Conditions for EHang EH216-S Unmanned Aircraft System" (hereinafter referred to as "Special Conditions"), which clarified the maximum take-off weight, flight altitude, The number of occupants that can be carried, the ground control station monitors the aircraft throughout the entire process, and the occupants can use the mobile communication network to communicate with the ground by voice and video. Before the release of the Special Conditions, there was no precedent worldwide. However, the Civil Aviation Administration also pointed out that no airworthiness regulations have been issued for this type of aircraft system.

　　EHang is the first pilot unit approved by the Civil Aviation Administration of China for the airworthiness certification of manned autonomous aircraft. He Tianxing, vice president of EHang Intelligence, told China News Weekly that the airworthiness certification of the EH216-S is in progress, and some thorough tests are currently being carried out. The EHang EH216-S has been tested in 11 application scenarios including domestic cities, coastlines, scenic spots, and characteristic towns that are not densely populated, with a maximum flight speed of 130 km/h. This type of aircraft can seat up to two people at a time. As of the second quarter of this year, EH216-S has completed more than 5,700 test flights, including air travel in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Sanya and other cities. EHang plans to test flights in some cities first, and then roll out the unmanned aerial vehicle to more cities around the world.

　　The domestic airworthiness certification of autonomous aircraft is "one step ahead". The FAA and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) remain cautious. Some people in the aviation industry pointed out that the FAA and EASA did not conceptually recognize that this method is sufficiently safe.

　　An industry insider, who did not want to be named, said that unmanned aerial vehicles require a higher degree of automation to carry people, which is a new field. Only by reaching the safety level of civil aviation aircraft or a similar order of magnitude of safety performance can the actual flight control be reliable. . In his view, manned unmanned aerial vehicles have many hidden concerns, such as the short development time of most models and the lack of operational experience, "even many companies are still verifying scaled models, and their prototypes have not yet flown for the first time. ". Furthermore, the level of intelligence of the systems used to control the aircraft in the event of an emergency in an unmanned aircraft is not high enough.

　　Autopilot is flying in low airspace. In China, the range of low airspace is 100 meters to 1,000 meters from the ground, and the maximum flight altitude of EHang EH216-S is 200 meters. Flying at low altitude means facing a more complex meteorological environment. Zhang Yangjun, a professor at the School of Vehicles and Transportation of Tsinghua University and the first recipient of the Wright Brothers Medal in China, analyzed the "China News Weekly" that the automatic driving of civil aviation passenger aircraft is generally at a cruising altitude of 8,000 meters to more than 10,000 meters, and the weather conditions are better; The meteorological conditions in the low-altitude area where the unmanned aerial vehicle is located are complex, especially the low-altitude wind shear, which seriously affects the flight safety. The perception, decision-making and response to the meteorological environment are relatively complex, "this is a huge challenge for manned unmanned aerial vehicles".

　　Zhang Yangjun further pointed out that the current intelligent unmanned driving is mainly suitable for non-high-density flight under good weather conditions, such as tourism and sightseeing in sunny weather. For the time being, it is impossible to achieve a large number of unmanned aerial vehicles flying all day and at high density.

On June 27, at the 2022 China (Shijiazhuang) International New Energy and Smart Auto Expo, Xiaopeng Motors released a "Traveller T1" flying car. Figure/IC

　　Zheng Guilin, a professor at the School of Power and Mechanics at Wuhan University, told China News Weekly that most civil airliners are on autopilot when cruising. But in terms of safety, whether the device enters autonomous navigation is controlled by the pilot. In his view, the key to the relative safety of civil aviation aircraft lies in the pilots with experience and professional knowledge. On a civil airliner, the pilot is an irreplaceable role.

　　EHang's self-piloting aircraft relies on artificial intelligence algorithms to achieve full automatic flight. He Tianxing told China News Weekly that the company has integrated the concept of "full backup" in the IT field into the design of autonomous aircraft, including propellers, various sensors, power systems, batteries and other key components are all designed with full backup, such as The EH216-S has a total of 16 propellers. When individual propellers fail and stop, other propellers will automatically supplement the power to ensure the smooth flight of the aircraft. When emergencies occur, EHang's ground command and dispatch center will also intervene in a timely manner and manually participate in management.

　　He Tianxing said that the dispatch system will plan multiple routes for passengers in advance. When an emergency occurs on one route, the system will automatically select another optimal route to continue executing the command, and realize remote management and real-time transmission of flight data through the 4G/5G network.

　　Whether it can be industrialized depends not only on stable demand, but also on the ecology of related industries, including technological breakthroughs in batteries and motors, manufacturers' investment intentions, policy support, and the formulation of operational norms.

　　Zhang Yangjun emphasized that when an aircraft encounters an emergency such as a malfunction in mid-air flight, it cannot stop on the side of the road like a car on the ground. It is necessary to activate the safe mode to repair the internal data of the system to ensure a safe landing and parking. This is also one of the main challenges facing unmanned aerial vehicles. Zhang Yangjun believes that just as self-driving taxis initially set up safety officers and gradually transition to fully unmanned vehicles, manned unmanned aerial vehicles may also follow a similar development path.

　　He Tianxing said that EHang's unmanned aerial vehicles can use algorithms and sensors to help the aircraft quickly identify obstacles in low-altitude airspace and automatically avoid them. Zhang Yangjun believes that in addition to the unmanned aerial vehicle itself, the more important thing is the establishment of air management rules and supervision system. Digital airspace planning and construction is an important foundation for the safe and high-density flight of unmanned aerial vehicles. In addition, the setting of take-off and landing points are also issues that need to be considered.

Without a good operating model, it is difficult to achieve industrialization

　　Compared with the short-term reality of unmanned "flying", many experts are more optimistic about the freight market. UAV cargo delivery has begun to be applied in the field of logistics. Meituan, Ali, JD.com, SF Express and other companies have layouts.

　　The aforementioned industry insiders speculate that it is difficult for unmanned aerial vehicles to become a tool for large-scale commuting in the short term. In contrast, UAVs have lower requirements for safety and flight quality than manned people, and pay more attention to economy and timeliness. In his view, the "flying" of the automatic driving in the early stage will be in the stage of accumulating flight data and operational experience, "it can be tried and tested, and it can progress and improve through exploration."

　　According to Morgan Stanley, the global flying car industry will reach a market size of $300 billion in 2030 and grow to $1.5 trillion in 2040. The price of the unmanned "air taxi" is currently unavailable. Before commercial application, EHang's test flights in specific application scenarios are free.

　　He Tianxing said that compared with ground taxis, taking a manned autonomous aircraft can save at least twice the time.

　　As for whether the unmanned "flying car" in the future will have a "share flight" mode to make the travel cost of passengers lower? He Tianxing said that he believes that there will be unmanned 4 to 6-seat "air minibuses" or larger "air buses" in the future, but it requires the acceptance of the public concept and the combination of hardware supporting facilities. Zhang Yangjun analyzed that from a technical point of view, the power-to-weight ratio of the new energy electric propulsion power system is low, that is, the electric propulsion system is too heavy, resulting in a small load and a short range. This is a problem to be solved in the future.

　　According to the schedule of the Civil Aviation Administration, by 2030 and 2035, unmanned manned transportation between cities will be realized, which is somewhat similar to the regional aviation industry at home and abroad. In 2017, regional airlines accounted for 41 percent of all scheduled passenger flights in the United States, according to data provided by the Regional Airline Association of America. Is there a possibility of large-scale commercialization of unmanned "flying" in the future?

　　The aforementioned industry insiders believe that the advantages of "Flying" are mainly reflected in timeliness and viewing, "this will become the choice for those who have higher requirements for timeliness." In addition, the low-altitude scenery is also more ornamental than the ground "car dragon". He pointed out that air routes are very precious resources, and the number of flying cars in the future cannot be as many as ground cars. This also determines that the price will be relatively high. "In terms of effectiveness, if it can solve 10% to 20% of urban traffic problems, it is already a very successful thing."

　　In his view, the commercialization of manned unmanned aerial vehicles still has a long way to go. "Only in terms of market demand, many people's assessments are based on imagination and calculation. The demand for human drones is relatively small.” According to him, industrialization depends not only on stable demand, but also on the ecology of related industries, including technological breakthroughs in batteries, motors, etc., manufacturers' investment intentions, policy support, and formulation of operational norms, etc. . The choice of the operating model is the top priority. If a good operating model cannot be found, there will be no way to achieve large-scale operation.

　　Zhang Yangjun pointed out that the electrification of unmanned aerial vehicles, the intelligent industry chain and the automobile industry have a high degree of integration, that is, the industrial foundation of future autonomous driving "flying" must be closely integrated with automobiles. At present, in terms of the safety of key components and systems such as motor batteries, a lot of work needs to be done to meet the requirements of aviation regulations. "But new things will have a strong vitality." Zhang Yangjun believes that industrial development needs to rely on a good ecology.

　　Some foreign aviation industry observers believe that the operational concepts and application scenarios proposed by domestic manned unmanned aerial vehicles follow the ideas of European and American countries, but China's urban planning, population density, rail transit development level, and geographical features are different from those of European and American countries. Huge, the final application scenario may not be consistent with the envisaged urban air commuting.

　　In this regard, in Zhang Yangjun's view, manned unmanned aerial vehicles in the global aviation field have entered a "no man's land". He admitted that the national conditions of China and foreign countries are not the same. At present, foreign countries may be ahead of China in some technologies, but China has a strong domestic demand drive and a good technical foundation for vehicle electrification and intelligence, which will help accelerate the formation of a better ecology.