As the judicial dispute between Poland and the European Union has been heating up recently, "Poland's exit" has become a hot topic in this country and in Europe. Poland, once the "model" for the "Europeanization" of Central and Eastern Europe, has become a "problem country" in the EU. What is this all about and how will it affect Poland's political situation and the European integration process?
The escalation of the Polish-European conflict
After the nationalist Law and Justice Party took power in Poland in 2015, Poland and the EU have been in conflict over judicial reform. Believing that the Polish liberal elite was increasingly corrupt and needed to set things right, the Law and Justice Party came to power and began to implement judicial reforms, limiting the role of independent institutions and eliminating checks and balances, and continued to make progress: taming the Constitutional Court in 2016, achieving control over the National Council of the Judiciary, the Supreme Court and the ordinary courts in 2017, and forcing Supreme Court judges to retire early in 2018 ......
The EU Court of Justice has ruled 12 times that the judicial reform is "contrary to EU law. "2021 On July 14, the EU Court of Justice ordered the government to freeze the disciplinary chamber of the Supreme Court that handles cases of lifting judges' immunity, and the following day ruled that the disciplinary system for Polish judges is not in line with EU law. In response, Justice Minister Joubrou denounced the EU's "attack" on the legal order, saying that Poland "should not stay in the EU at any cost. The EU must be acceptable to us", and if things go as they are, "we will have to seek a radical solution". To "put out the fire," the political committee of the Law and Justice Party adopted a resolution ruling out the possibility of Brexit. However, on October 7, the Constitutional Court ruled that some provisions of the EU Treaty were unconstitutional and that the EU court's interference in Polish justice violated the principle of Polish sovereignty. This culminated in a judicial dispute between Poland and the EU, which culminated in a cover article in the conservative-leaning weekly Centrum on October 22, emphasizing that "Poland is leaving the EU, and we have the right to talk about it.
In the history of the EU, no member state has ever directly challenged the status of the EU Court of Justice, and the decision of the Polish Constitutional Court has shaken the entire EU. Stressing that the supremacy of EU law over the laws of member states is one of the "pillars" of the EU, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Borrelli accused the Polish Constitutional Court of "directly challenging the EU legal order". European Parliament President Sassouli called on the European Commission to take the necessary measures.In a debate in the European Parliament on October 19, European Commission President von der Leyen stressed that only a common legal order can guarantee equal rights, legal security, mutual trust and common policies among member states. On October 21, the European Parliament adopted a resolution to declare the ruling of the Constitutional Court "illegal" and stressed that EU taxpayers' money should not be transferred to countries that weaken the basic values of the European Community. The European Parliament adopted a resolution on October 21, which deemed the decision of the Constitutional Court "illegal" and stressed that EU taxpayers' money should not be transferred to countries that weaken the basic values of the European Community.
In the face of pressure from the EU, Prime Minister Morawiecki launched a counterattack. In a speech to the European Parliament, he criticized the EU's "double standards" towards Poland, stressing that Poland remains a loyal member of the EU, but its future is threatened by "a union that is no longer free, equal and respectful of sovereignty" and that Poland is not interested in the European "centralization". Poland has clearly said "no" to "centralization" in Europe. At the EU summit on Oct. 21, Morawiecki again stressed that Poland will not succumb to pressure.
However, Poland also has sympathizers within the EU. While the Netherlands, Belgium, Finland and Luxembourg explicitly opposed the ruling of the Polish Constitutional Court, Hungary stood by Poland, while France and Germany advocated resolving differences through dialogue, so the EU summit failed to reach agreement on the issue.
In recent years, the EU has had judicial disputes with Hungary and Poland respectively, and the crisis of rule of law has increasingly become a problem for it. The EU has tried to solve the problem by launching the Article 7 procedure of the EU Treaty in 2017 and introducing a mechanism to link the EU funds to the rule of law in member states in 2020, but to no avail. Some observers believe that the foundation of the EU has been shaken by judicial issues, and the "existential crisis" is deepening.
Increasing domestic strife in Poland
The decision of the Constitutional Court has also caused strong reactions in Poland. The ruling coalition's dignitaries saw it as a "victory for Poland" and praised the court for "setting the boundaries of EU influence in Polish affairs". The opposition and some public opinion, however, see the Court's decision as a prelude to Poland's exit from the EU and a "true Targovica" (the Polish-Lithuanian nobility formed the Targovica Union in 1792 with Tsarist support). "(In 1792, the Polish-Lithuanian nobility, supported by Tsarist Russia, formed the Targovica Union, which opposed the May 3rd Constitution and eventually led to the partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth). Former prime minister, former president of the European Council, and chairman of the Civic Platform party, Donald Tusk, and others called the Constitutional Court "a betrayal of the national interest" by dropping an "atomic bomb" on the EU legal system, which is leading Poland to leave the EU. On October 10, the main opposition parties held a huge demonstration across the country to express their anger at the possibility of Poland leaving the European Union.
The Constitutional Court ruling has further exacerbated the conflict between the ruling party and opposition parties, with the Law and Justice Party attacking the Civic Platform as "traitors" and the Civic Platform opposing judicial reform and conflict with the EU.
Is Poland really going to leave the EU?
Poland joined the EU in 2004 and has benefited greatly since then. Poland's economy has doubled in 17 years, its average annual growth rate is higher than Germany's, its unemployment rate is among the lowest in the EU, and it has attracted the third largest amount of foreign investment in Europe. During the 17 years of its accession, Poland has received 206 billion Euros, and after deducting 66.4 billion Euros in contributions to the EU, the net inflow is 139.6 billion Euros. Poland has built 3,700 kilometers of highways with EU funds and farmers have benefited from EU agricultural subsidies to the tune of 41 billion euros. In the period 2021-2027, Poland will receive another 75 billion euros in "convergence funds". If we leave the EU, Poland will pay a huge economic price.
Poles' support for their country's EU membership has never fallen below 70 percent since 2005, according to polls by the Polish Center for Public Opinion Research. Despite the conflict with the EU since the Law and Justice Party came to power, Poles' support for EU membership has remained high, at 88 percent at the end of 2020 and 90 percent in October 2021. Opposition parties such as Civic Platform, Modern Party, People's Party and New Left Party are strong supporters of European integration and will not let the ruling party lead Poland out of the EU. However, the elite of the Law and Justice Party and the pro-government media are doing their best to create anti-European sentiment, the long-term effects of which cannot be ignored.
In the face of the Polish Constitutional Court ruling, the EU faces three options: legally challenge the ruling; withhold EU funds; and suspend some of Poland's rights as an EU member state. The EU has yet to pay Poland 23 billion euros in EU subsidies and 34 billion euros in low-interest loans. Former Prime Minister Belka believes that Poland will lose the opportunity to develop if it does not receive support from the "recovery fund. If the EU launches a mechanism linking EU funds to the rule of law to deal with the controversy, Poland will not be able to get more EU funds, which will fuel the debate on Brexit in Poland. Warsaw's business community fears that if this situation persists for two or three years, the positive attitude of Poles toward Europe could be reversed.
Whether Poland will leave the EU depends on the evolution of Polish-European relations, the development of anti-European attitudes among the Polish political elite and domestic political trends. From the EU's side, its values agenda, climate agenda and response to the rule of law crisis will all have an impact on Polish-European relations. On the Polish side, if tensions between Poland and Europe further inflame domestic tensions, leading to a fundamental shift in social attitudes and a weakening of opposition parties, exit from the EU could become a reality. In any case, although the Law and Justice Party is unlikely to take political and economic risks in the near future to push for a substantial exit, the judicial process of Poland's exit from the EU has already begun.
