1. Where does the United States return?
"Return" is a very provocative word in the United States, but if you think about it carefully, you will figure out that "Return" actually implies that the current situation is "out of place", revealing a bit of a counterattack against the trend. This is indeed the current strategic tone of the United States.
"Return of the United States" is intended to "recover the leadership of the United States." Biden's "Return of America" and Trump's "Make America Great Again" are similar in terms of communication effects, and both have the meaning of regaining lost things. In essence, it means that the United States wants to restore its hegemony. Biden's international strategy closely relies on domestic politics, and his "The Return of America" is largely aimed at the Republican Party and Trump. At present, the political polarization in the United States is severe. Although Biden won the election, his net votes are not much higher than Trump. Trump and his supporters still make Biden face great political threats. After the election, the Trump camp has repeatedly emphasized that Biden is "stealing the big position," and Trump supporters even launched violent attacks when Congress determined the results of the election. Now, there are still people urging Trump to run for the election in four years to take the presidency back. At the end of February, at the American Conservative Political Action Conference, conservatives gathered around Trump and clamored for power. For Biden and the Democrats to "hold a firm foothold", they must liquidate and subvert Trump's policies. Therefore, each of Biden's "Return of America" clearly stated to the American public that "Trump lost it, and Biden helped the Americans take it back." Biden returned to multilateralism, repaired allies, and adopted domestic Different anti-epidemic policies are to reverse Trump's domestic and foreign policies and demonstrate Trump's failure.
U.S. President Biden took a long needle and thread and re-stitched the cut map of the United States on the globe, declaring the "Return of America." (Originally published in American Political Cartoon Network)
2. The strategic direction focuses on China
Although the "return" of the United States is a bit fictitious, such as a free and open international order, multilateralism, etc., which make it difficult for ordinary people to understand what specific measures they have, Biden's "Return of the United States" clearly shows in terms of major power strategy. For the Chinese side.
(1) Comprehensive pressure
The Biden administration continued its economic and trade pressure on China during the Trump era, strengthened the Indo-Pacific military, and joined forces with allies in the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea to increase its military presence. On March 1, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced a "2021 Trade Agenda Report and 2020 Annual Report". In this 308-page document, "China" was mentioned 467 times. On March 12, the leaders of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India held a video conference of the "Quadruple Security Meeting", which officially upgraded the original ministerial meeting and the dual ministerial meeting of "foreign ministers + defense ministers" to "leaders' summit." Under the guise of joint anti-epidemic and other names, New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam have also been drawn into the "quartet security mechanism." In this regard, the US media pointed out that this meeting is aimed at creating an "Asian version of NATO." On March 15th, US Secretary of State Blincoln and Secretary of Defense Austin started their first visit after taking office and went to Japan and South Korea. The United States has repeatedly reiterated its security guarantees to its allies and promised that the "U.S.-Japan Security Treaty" will apply to the Diaoyu Islands. The United States has also extensively contacted allies in the South China Sea to show its strength. There are more hardliners in the US strategic circle claiming that “China is controlling the South China Sea” and that “the United States has not yet found an effective solution”, reflecting on Obama’s failure to contain China and Trump’s focus on economics and trade. And other issues such as the North Korean nuclear issue, another four years were wasted on the South China Sea issue, which clamored that Biden must put pressure on China.
(2) Keep an eye on China
These big and small actions, both overt and undercover, show that Biden's foreign strategic priority is targeting China. In Russia, the Middle East, Afghanistan and other areas of strategic concern, the United States ranks China at the forefront. When necessary, it may abandon other directions and focus more on containing China. This point may be more obvious than Trump's time: In December 2017, Trump released the first "National Security Strategy Report" in his term. The report lists China and Russia as the largest rivals of the United States and ranks China ahead of Russia. According to statistics, the report mentions China 33 times and Russia 25 times. In early March of this year, the "Interim National Security Strategic Guidelines" issued by the Biden administration mentioned China and Chinese people 18 times, and Russia only 5 times. At the time of the publication of this report, the US military is pushing to strengthen military deployment against China. In addition to what is already being done, such as uniting allies to send warships to China's neighboring countries, conducting various military exercises with China's neighboring countries, and continuously carrying out ship and aircraft cruises in the South China Sea and other waters. Recently, the US Indo-Pacific Command has continued to spread the "Chinese military threat" theory to Congress and the media, claiming that if the United States does not take action, 10 years later, the comparative advantage of the Chinese and US military forces in the Western Pacific will fundamentally fall to China. To this end, the Indo-Pacific Command calls on the highest US authorities to increase the deployment of long-range weapons, including land-based offensive weapons, in the Western Pacific region.
3. Long-term competition makes dreams hard to come true
The United States calls on its allies to work together to carry out "long-term strategic competition" with China and equate "leading the world" with "competition with China". This will inevitably bring more strategic pressure to China. However, the various pressure conditions in the United States are not sufficient, and the strategic assumptions are not prudent and rational. Therefore, it is worth studying how far the distance between ideal and reality is.
(1) The crisis in the United States
At present, the United States is in a state of domestic and foreign difficulties. Biden himself concluded that the United States is facing "four historical crises": the new crown epidemic crisis, the economic crisis, the systemic racial crisis, and the climate crisis. The United States is far-fetched to associate these with China, spreading rumors that the virus comes from China, the economic crisis is due to China's unfair competition, and climate change is largely due to China's failure to vigorously control emissions. Regarding the racial crisis, although the United States really cannot link the plight of African Americans and Latinos in the United States with China, it has increased its prevention and even hostility towards Chinese people, Chinese students, and personnel going to the United States. Anyone with a slightly normal judgment will know that the crises that the United States is facing today are actually caused by its own development strategy and imbalances. Western strategic circles are increasingly aware of this point. If the sense of crisis in the United States 20 or 30 years ago was artificial and the purpose was to shape its opponents and find directions after the victory of the Cold War, the crisis in the United States today is real. Really. Biden's "four historical crises" referred to two other major crises in his foreign strategy: one is a crisis of trust. Allies of the United States believe that the United States' national power and credibility are not so reliable, although allies also admit that the United States is still strong and is still the world's largest chess player. The second is the capacity crisis. The United States currently has many contradictions in its own right, and the combination of allies’ power is by no means a simple addition of numbers. Biden’s strategic sequence will continue to have new problems, and these new problems are likely to be ahead of the confrontation with China and continue to squeeze the United States. Strategic resources. The current U.S. system restrictions, leadership constraints, etc., have caused the U.S. to speak loudly on individual issues, but cannot straighten out contradictions and coordinate efforts at the system level.
(2) The impetuousness of the United States
"The Return of the United States", in the final analysis, depends on the momentum of development to support continuous strength growth. From Trump to Biden, the United States lacks real and effective structural changes in its own development and foreign strategies. They are often promoted through money and momentum. People cannot see how much stamina the United States can have on the long-term competition track. On March 6, the U.S. Senate passed a $1.9 trillion rescue bill aimed at stimulating national consumption and boosting economic vitality. This is equivalent to paying a cash subsidy of about $1,400 to each eligible American resident, which is really a rhythm like "helicopter money". The economic circle estimates that there will be flooding in the United States in the future. However, spreading money in this way cannot fundamentally solve the internal contradictions of the US economy.
Under the overview, the impetuous U.S. strategy is comprehensive, such as the introduction of the "Interim National Security Strategy." It stands to reason that the national security strategy of the new U.S. president always requires careful investigation and consideration before it is introduced. However, Biden introduced this strategy more than a month after taking office, and added the word "temporary", and launched it with a high profile along with the clamor of "Return of America." Facts have proved that there is a lack of long-term and solid planning from "Return of America" to "strategic competition with China." The dream of the "return of the king" imagined by the United States is destined to be difficult to realize.
