The Olympic flame, which had been burning for 17 days at the New National Stadium in Tokyo, was extinguished on the evening of August 8. The Tokyo Olympics, which was postponed for one year due to the new crown epidemic, looked like a hidden danger in the global controversy and attention. The plane took off and finally landed safely, letting people all over the world breathe a sigh of relief.
Although there is still a Paralympic Games to be held, Japan, which is under heavy pressure, has completed its "Olympic homework" without any risk. Although there are still loopholes in the prevention of the epidemic, overall, the most special Olympic Games in history has received positive reviews from the international community. IOC President Bach also stated at the closing summary press conference that the prerequisites for the successful hosting of this Olympic Games To ensure safety, Tokyo is fully prepared.
However, Japan, which gritted its teeth to finish the Olympics, is facing the grim reality of the post-Olympic era. The huge loss of Olympic accounts, the difficult economic recovery situation, and the high number of new cases of new crowns... all these have become difficult issues that the Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has to face, and will also face the future. Japan’s economic ship in 1960 had a huge impact.
The huge blood loss of the Olympic ledger
In this Olympic Games, the Japanese delegation at home battle has won 27 gold medals, 14 silver medals, 17 bronze medals, a total of 58 medals, second only to China and the United States. Judging from the performance of the athletes, Japan is undoubtedly a success. However, excellent competition results can hardly conceal the "blood loss" situation. The huge loss of the Tokyo Olympics under the epidemic is a foregone conclusion.
If you spend a lot of money to hold a party, not only will the host family not receive many red envelopes, but you will also have to face the mess after the meeting. Only you know the suffering in your heart. This is the current situation in Japan. The Tokyo Olympics, which has ended, left Japan with a mess.
Reuters pointed out that with the end of the Olympic Games, Japan will have to calculate the cost. According to the New York Post, Zimbalist, an economist at Smith College in the United States, predicted that the Olympics will cost Japan at least 30 billion U.S. dollars.
"The Tokyo Olympics gave birth to many'heroes', adding a new page to the history of sports. These are all intangible assets, but what about the huge deficits in the event?" On the closing day of the Tokyo Olympics, the chief economist of Japan Daiichi Institute of Economics The scholar Hideo Kumano wrote an article in the "Mainichi Shimbun" and sent out such torture.
In order to successfully host the Olympic Games, Japan has invested heavily in civil engineering, invested heavily in urban construction, built stadiums, and improved urban ecology, which consumed huge financial resources. According to the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee’s 5th edition budget plan, the current Olympic and Paralympic Games are expected to cost 1.644 trillion yen (approximately US$15.4 billion), which is more than the 1.35 trillion yen estimated before the Olympic Games were postponed in 2020. It is 22% higher, and it is twice the 800 billion yen estimate submitted by Tokyo during its Olympic bid.
The US "Time" previously reported that the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is expected to cost 25 billion U.S. dollars (about 175.4 billion yuan). Several authoritative Japanese financial media estimated that Japan’s final investment in the Tokyo Olympics would be as high as 28 billion U.S. dollars, while the initial budget was only 6 billion U.S. dollars, which exceeded the budget by 367%. Previously, the title of the most expensive Olympics was maintained by the 2012 London Olympics, costing approximately US$14.96 billion. The Tokyo Olympics cost almost twice as much as the London Olympics, making it the veritable "most expensive Olympics in history."
However, the cost input far exceeded the budget, but the expected return was not exchanged. The fate of huge losses has been doomed from the moment Japan and the International Olympic Committee decided to postpone the Olympic Games last year.
Although many Japanese people believe that the Tokyo Olympics should be completely cancelled, the Japanese government still insists on hosting the Tokyo Olympics because an estimate shows that the eventual loss is expected to exceed 10 billion U.S. dollars if it continues to be held; the direct loss will be as high as 41 billion U.S. dollars if the Olympics are cancelled. On May 25 this year, Japanese think tank Nomura Research Researcher Tohide Kinou issued an analysis report that if the Olympic Games this year is suspended, it is estimated that there will be a loss of 1.8 trillion yen. If it is held empty, it will cost 147 billion days. Yuan.
In any case, it is a loss-making business. It is a little bit less loss. Japan can only bite the bullet and hold this "hot potato".
It now appears that the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee will have a deficit in revenue and expenditure, and it is inevitable to use Japanese taxpayers' money to pay for the bill.
The main income of the Olympic Games is the sales income of television broadcasting rights, commercial sponsorship income, ticket income, franchise market development, tourist income, etc. However, this time the Tokyo Olympics will not accept foreign tourists, and even the venues will have empty games. The two major income points of the direct economy brought about by the Olympics were forced to return to zero because of the epidemic.
According to the budget plan announced by the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee, the ticket revenue for the Tokyo Olympics is expected to be 90 billion yen (about 5.3 billion yuan), accounting for 12% of the total Olympic revenue. Nowadays, most venues "watch the game without spectators", and this income has finally been reduced to billions of yen.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government originally planned to re-use the Olympic Village and other measures to create 2.2572 trillion yen in revenue, and through tourism and the application of advanced technology to create 9.1666 trillion yen in benefits. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, these plans have all failed.
Based on expectations of economic returns, many sponsors have reduced or even cancelled advertising and activities for the Tokyo Olympics, which will also greatly damage the revenue of the Tokyo Olympics.
Kumano Hideo said that after the entire Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games are over, many serious issues will remain, such as the construction cost of the main stadium, the additional cost of one year postponed, the increased cost of anti-epidemic measures and other public expenditures, or A huge deficit will be formed, and the Japanese government and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government must face the cruel reality of the budget.
It now appears that the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee will have a deficit in revenue and expenditure, and it is inevitable to use Japanese taxpayers' money to pay for the bill. After the closing of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee will negotiate with the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and the central government on the financial burden.
The "Olympic Economy" Dream Comes Out
Kumano Hideo believes that to solve the huge deficit problem of the Tokyo Olympics, there is no other choice except to develop the economy to reduce the debt burden in the future. However, this is not easy for Japan.
In 1964, Japan successfully hosted the Tokyo Olympics for the first time. The Japanese economy also took advantage of the Olympic Games to rise strongly. GDP surpassed Britain and France in 1967 and West Germany in 1968, becoming the world's second largest economic power after the United States. Eight years ago, when the Japanese government applied for the Olympics, it was full of hopes to replicate the economic take-off of the 1964 Olympics in order to promote the reconstruction of Japan after the devastating earthquake, so that the economy can recover from a downturn and achieve sustainable development.
Before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Japanese media had calculated that the Tokyo Olympics would bring about 320 billion U.S. dollars in economic benefits to Japan, create more than 1.2 million jobs, and the Olympic Games ticket revenue was close to 800 million U.S. dollars. After the successful bid for the Tokyo Olympics, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has estimated that between 2013 and 2030, the successful bid for the Olympics will bring 32 trillion yen (about 2 trillion yuan) of economic effects to Japan. It is estimated that the average annual GDP will be Push up 900 billion yen (approximately 59 billion yuan). A calculation report issued by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government in 2017 stated that the Olympic Games will enhance Tokyo's image as an international tourist city and an international business center, bringing a direct economic effect of 12.24 trillion yen.
However, today is different from the past, and the new crown epidemic has caused everything to be wiped out. It is difficult to re-realize Japan’s old dream of “Olympic economy”. Just two days before the opening of the Olympics, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government once again issued a new version of the Olympic evaluation, believing that infrastructure such as the Olympics, Paralympic venues, parks and the reform of working methods formed during the Olympics will all become the historical heritage of the Tokyo Olympics. Avoid talking about the economic effects of the post-Olympic era. Even Japan’s Minister of Economic Rebirth, Yasumi Nishimura, said that he no longer expects the economic effects of the Olympics. Keisi Kanda, a senior economist at the Economic Research Department of Japan's Yamato Research Institute, believes that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has completely changed social life, and the economic effect of the Tokyo Olympics on Japan will be less than 5 trillion yen.
At the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s New Crown Epidemic Conference on August 12, Director of Japan’s National Center for International Infectious Diseases Ogaki Takao pointed out that in Tokyo, the new crown virus “is accelerating its spread at an unprecedented speed, and the epidemic has fallen into an uncontrollable state, reaching disaster levels.
Chen Zilei, vice president of the National Japanese Economic Association and director of the Center for Japanese Economic Research at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, said in an interview with the media that it is fortunate that the Olympics can be successfully completed now. However, it has not changed people's concerns about the epidemic, and it is far from the brilliant report card envisioned by Yoshihide Suga.
For the current Tokyo Olympics, the loss of tickets caused by empty venues is actually not a large proportion. This part of the Olympic revenue is very small. In fact, a large part of the loss lies in the tourism industry. Before the epidemic, Japan had predicted that tourists flocking to Japan to watch the Olympics would spend nearly US$2 billion on dining, transportation, hotels, and shopping. In addition, this 17-day event will inspire others to travel to Japan, thereby bringing in billions of dollars in revenue.
In 2019, the number of tourists visiting Japan has exceeded 30 million, and the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan is close to 10 million. If there is no epidemic in 2020 and the Olympic halo, it is estimated that there will be more than 40 million tourists visiting Japan. The number of tourists in Japan can reach more than 13 million people. In 2019, foreigners visiting Japan spent up to 4.7 trillion yen in Japan, accounting for about 1% of GDP. The consumption of Chinese tourists in Japan alone reached 1.7 trillion yen. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, overseas tourism income has almost equaled zero.
According to the latest forecast by the Yamato Research Institute, the economic effect brought to Japan during the Tokyo Olympics is only 350 billion yen, which is 450 billion yen less than the economic effect of hosting the Olympics under normal circumstances, which means that 56% of the expected income will be lost.
Credit Suisse Japan's chief economist Shirakawa Komichi did not deny that the Olympics are beneficial to the economy, but at the same time said that the current direct impact on the economy is much smaller, and the indirect impact seems to be even smaller. "Mainly because the Japanese government wants to use the opportunity of hosting the Olympics to invite more foreign companies to do business in Japan. This is an indirect impact and has not happened yet. So we are a bit disappointed. The impact of the Olympics this year on GDP is too small to be impossible. Estimated-it may be less than hundreds of billions of yen, so it can be ignored." He said.
However, Nomura Research Institute economist Kiuchi Tohide said that foreigners may travel to Japan after the epidemic, and there are still potential rewards in this regard. "Restaurants and hotels have refurbished facilities to welcome foreigners, and these resources will not be wasted for nothing."
The epidemic continues to "bleed" in Japan
Zhang Jifeng, a researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with Observer that the Tokyo Olympics must be at a loss, but the impact of this loss on the Japanese economy is limited. Especially compared with the epidemic, the impact on the Japanese economy is almost negligible. To be sure, even the worst estimate given for the loss of the Tokyo Olympics is less than 1% of the size of the Japanese economy.
If the hosting of the Olympics has caused Japan's economy to "bleed", the epidemic is still causing Japan's "bleeding". This is the biggest enemy of Japan's economy in the post-Olympic era. At present, the increase in new infections and severely ill people has not yet stepped on the brakes, which makes the prospect of Japan's economic recovery continue to be at great risk.
In the first quarter of 2021, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 1.3% from the previous month, and fell 5.1% year-on-year. The decline was much larger than the previously estimated 4.5%. According to the Nikkei Chinese website, data released by the Cabinet Office of Japan on August 16 show that the real GDP express value from April to June 2021 has a month-on-month growth rate of 1.3%. Although positive growth was ensured, it was still 1.5% lower than the October-December 2019 period before the epidemic. Nagahama Toshihiro, chief economist of Japan's Daiichi Life Economic Research Institute, said that the fourth state of emergency will still drag down Japan's personal consumption, which is expected to cause the economy to decline by 0.6% in the third quarter from the previous month, and the annual rate is 2.3%. Chen Zilei also said that if the third quarter cannot turn from negative to positive, then the Japanese economy will maintain negative growth this year.
According to the "Yomiuri Shimbun" website, on August 13, the number of new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Japan exceeded 20,000 for the first time, reaching 20,366. Since more than 10,000 new cases were added in a single day on July 29, it has doubled in just 15 days. Including the metropolitan area, the number of new cases in a single day in 16 prefectures hit a new high.
Vaccination scene in Japan.
In addition, according to statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, as of August 14, the number of severe cases in Japan reached 1,563, an increase for 25 consecutive days and a record high for 3 consecutive days.
According to Japanese media quoted sources on the 16th, the Japanese government will expand the scope of the epidemic prevention emergency due to the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in many parts of the country, adding Ibaraki Prefecture, Tochigi Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Shizuoka Prefecture, Kyoto Prefecture, and Bing Seven prefectures including Ku and Fukuoka prefectures are areas where the state of emergency is implemented. These areas will enter the state of emergency from the 20th of this month, and the deadline is September 12. Of the 47 prefectures in the country, 13 are in a state of emergency.
As the epidemic tightened, the popularity of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga also continued to decline. The results of a poll released by Kyodo News on August 16 showed that the approval rate of Yoshihide Suga's cabinet fell to a new low of 31.8%, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from the previous month; the disapproval rate rose by 0.8 percentage points to 50.6%, which was the highest in September last year. A new high since coming to power.
This year is not only Japan’s Olympic year, but also Japan’s general election year. The election of the House of Representatives and the election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party are very important to the Yoshihide Suga government. Yoshihide Suga also hopes that the hosting of the Olympic Games will give him extra points. However, the main reason why Yoshihide Suga's support rate has fallen after the Olympics is that he failed to control the epidemic. Before the people opposed to hosting the Olympics, they were worried about the further spread of the epidemic.
Zhang Jifeng believes that whether Yoshihide Suga continues to be re-elected or is replaced by someone else, he will definitely continue to implement the ultra-loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy centered on "Abenomics". In the long run, Japan's domestic economic environment is not optimistic, and deep-seated structural problems are difficult to resolve. In 2020, Japan has issued a huge amount of hundreds of billions of yen in national debt in response to the epidemic. Recently, it will continue to issue more, and its financial situation has further deteriorated. This has become the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the Japanese government. .
