When it comes to the impact of the new crown pneumonia on the population, most people are concerned about the mortality rate, but in fact, the impact of the epidemic on the birth rate is not small.
According to data provided by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economics, in January 2021, the French birth rate fell by 13% year-on-year. This phenomenon is not unique to France. In fact, it is a world phenomenon. The “Journal of Population Research” stated that the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain have also encountered the same problem. Affected by the epidemic, many women in these countries have postponed their plans to have children. The same is true in the United States. According to a survey conducted by the Guttmacher Association, 34% of American women do not want to have more children due to the epidemic. The Brookings Institution pointed out that the number of newborn babies in the United States will decrease by about 300,000 in 2021.
China liberalized its second-child policy in 2016, but in 2020, the number of newborn babies in China was only 10 million, which is a 15% decrease compared with 2019. South Korea's birth rate has also fallen by 14% year-on-year. Under the epidemic situation, the economy is in recession; people are under high mental pressure and the pregnancy success rate is low; medical resources are scarce, and it is unknown whether women can have good medical services after pregnancy; countries have successively implemented quarantine and curfew policies, making it difficult for people to meet; Children who cannot go to school can only stay at home every day. Faced with these new changes, many people have to press the pause button on the matter of having children.
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, poor countries represented by the Philippines have actually ushered in a baby boom.
However, in poor countries represented by the Philippines, the situation is just the opposite. Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, these countries with high fertility rates have ushered in a baby boom. The United Nations Population Fund and the Population Research Institute of the University of the Philippines estimate that the number of newborn babies in the Philippines will increase by 214,000 in 2021, an increase of 12.5% compared with 2020. In the least developed countries, the spread of the epidemic means the spread of poverty, and poverty is often linked to a large number of newborns. According to the World Bank, the economic recession caused by the epidemic has plunged hundreds of millions of people into extreme poverty. Such an increase in poverty has never been seen in the entire modern history. Among them, the demographic changes deserve our vigilance. In sub-Saharan African countries, such as Ethiopia, Kenya, and Malawi, minor pregnancy, child marriage, and unintended pregnancies have all increased significantly during the epidemic.
In March 2021, French television invited experts to participate in the program to analyze the reasons for the rapid decline in the birth rate. Affected by the epidemic, women in many European countries have postponed their pregnancy plans.
According to the scissors effect, the population gap between the northern and southern hemispheres will become larger and larger, and the aging of the population in rich countries such as Europe will become more prominent. For Europe, pensions and expenditures for the elderly are bound to become a headache. Although the number of young and middle-aged people in poor countries is increasing year by year, it is difficult for these countries to meet the development needs of young people, and this problem is increasing year by year. The population gap will increase contradictions on immigration, social and political issues. Paul Moran, a well-known British demographic scholar, predicted in his book "Population Wave": "There will be more and more gray and green in this world, and less and less white." He wants to use this as a metaphor: the future world , The aging of the population will become more and more serious, human beings will pay more and more attention to resource management issues, and the proportion of the European population will become lower and lower. According to the current situation, his prediction is likely to be fulfilled in advance.
